nate mcguire

Yesterday M$ released the new Xbox “experience” update for the 360.  I’ve yet to tool around with it hardcore, but from initial observations, its very uhh…different.  I guess I was a fan of the blades, and seeing as my xbox goes straight to CoD4 on boot up, it wasn’t really an issue.

Obviously the first thing that you’ll notice is the pairing of xbox and netflix.  This is probably the single most important update that they’ve provided, and I’m thinking I may renew my netflix account just to watch the streaming movies.  At 5.99 a month you can get unlimited online access to their movies and a one real movie in the mail at a time. Oh, and its in HD. I’ll mess around with it more tonight/this weekend and fill you in.

So, seeing as the house of cards that is our financial system is collapsing, I thought I would give an update for today.  The Dow closed at around 7500 today, which I was thinking might be the bottom.  Today I’d like to revise my statement and say it could go even lower than 7k.  This crap is going to be around for a while.

The S&P closed down 6.7%, undercutting its low from the 2000-02 bear market during trading today.
Here are the numbers, enjoy:

and for the “more” part:

Texas Tech plays OU this weekend in Norman. This will be the first time that I’m cheering for OU hardcore. I’m looking for a 3-way tie and us on top of the BCS. SOLID.

I’m feeling a little more up to speed following my lunch, therefore I actually do have some knowledge to bestoy upon you today. There are quite a few things going on in the marketplace this week and last that are going to have a lasting affect on our economy and many corporations’ futures.  With all of the hoopla surrounding President-Elect Obama (I had never heard this term so much before this election), the media outside CNBC is largely ignoring the current economic crisis to the best of its ability.

So here is the short and dirty of what is going to fuck us in the coming days.

• The government decided that $70bn wasn’t enough for AIG - how does $150bn sound? Oh and how about a $40bn stake in the nation’s largest insurer? No big deal right?
• Not really big news, but sort of funny, mostly because I’ve always hated them: Circuit City is filing for Chapter 11, aka they suck at making money. They’ll be allowed to keep operating while they develop a restructuring plan.
• DHL is cutting 9,500 jobs and is closing its US service centers. As in you won’t be able to send something domestically via DHL anymore. At all. Only service from the US to other countries. Good news for UPS and FedEx though!
• Google hit a 3-year low. Enough said.
• And Oil is back up, whoo. China’s stimulus plan will help to increase demand, even though OPEC is cutting production, oil has fallen from approx $150 a barrel to around $60 today.  Good news for us, seeing as comparatively, oil is still way too expensive.
• The iPhone has also been the best selling phone, even in the downturn. I really hope that RIM goes out of business so my freakin’ company will support iPhones with email and stuff. Expensing my phone would be nice.

With an expected jump in the financial markets today, I thought I would ruin all of your hopes and dreams and fill you in on what is probably just a dead-cat bounce.

Although the markets will most likely end up today (foreign markets were up as much as 14% and US futures were high), there is some very negative news on the horizon. Investors are always hoping that the downturn is going to end so they can throw their money back in the ring.  Hold off on that, especially since the markets and a lot of our elder’s retirement accounts have already lost approximately 40% in the past month.

Today the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was released (last Tuesday of each month), with some historic news, and not the good kind. The CCI is low. As in the lowest it has ever been. The Conference Board’s confidence index decreased to 38, less than forecast and the lowest since monthly records began in 1967. With Americans’ wealth disappearing, $2 trillion in the past 15 months [US News & World Report], and corporate layoffs on the horizon, the outlook for the economy is bleak.

Most people have heard of the CCI and understand that it is an index of consumer confidence, and an important indicator of future economic prosperity or downturn. A lesser known index, but probably more important, is the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). The PMI is a measure of the manufacturing sector’s outlook and is released on the first of the month for the preceding month. A rating of 50 or above indicates economic growth, while below 50 indicates downturn. Although the US has turned into a service industry driven by consumer purchases, manufacturing is still where recessions tend to begin and end. Because of this, investors (you should too) follow the PMI closely. Right now we’re is at a delicious 43.

With this in mind, follow the markets closely, keep track of your money, and don’t lose your job. Happy Tuesday.

So this weekend in Austin was great. TJL and Erik hosted me up at my old house and endless excitement ensued, minus the whole only winning by 4 points to the okies.

Moving on, not to ruin your Monday or anything, but it appears as if the wost of the financial crisis isn’t over.  If you’ve been living in a hole the past 3 months, we’ve been experiencing the worst series of events for our economy, likely since the great depression. The state of our economy and this crisis was predicted by a few, who at the time were considered loony, like my professor of money and capital markets last semester and this guy, Nouriel Roubini. Roubini, one of the few ‘loonies’ to predict this crisis, is on another tour of doom throughout the world stating that, and I quote, “I fear that the worst is yet to come”, and the financial crisis is nowhere near over.

In my limited experience and knowledge, as well as the fact that this dude was right last time, leads me to believe that we are more screwed than most people realize, including the fact that the so called ‘bailout’ is going to cost us billions and not really speed up the recovery all that much.

“What does Roubini think is going to happen next? Rather worryingly, in London last Thursday he predicted that hundreds of hedge funds will go bust and stock markets may soon have to shut – perhaps for as long as a week – in order to stem the panic selling now sweeping the world.” [Times Online]

start hiding money under your mattress, that is, if you still have a job.